In my logic classes I have resisted trying to explain Bayes' Theorum to students. For one reason, I don't have enough actual experience using it to claim to significantly understand it. Yet certain philosophers and theologians and Christian apologists use it to argue for certain probableistic outcomes. So... I discovered this today, as a result of reading Francis Spufford's Unapologetic, which linked me here, from where I traveled here - "An Intuitive explanation of Bayes' Theorum," by Eliezer Yudkowsky. Very good!